On frequent routes, riders benefit when vehicles arrive at reasonably even intervals. Our current approach measures distance between vehicles on monitored routes while we build the stop-level history needed to estimate passenger waits.
A frequent route and an infrequent route create different expectations. We keep their reliability questions separate instead of forcing both into one score.
When people normally arrive without consulting a timetable, even spacing matters more than a single scheduled minute.
When service is less frequent, leaving early, arriving late or not appearing can have a larger consequence.
These are mapped distances between reported vehicles, not final reliability scores or passenger wait times.
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Use recent vehicle positions to identify route observations worth examining more closely.
Store direction-specific observations at consistent stops or timing points and measure data coverage.
Compare calculated results with known outcomes, publish missingness and suppress results when coverage is weak.